The Campi Flegrei eruption* is carbon dated to 39 000 BP from organic ashes that it burned up and which were deposed in recognisable layers.
39 000 BP or 37 000 BC (should have gone for 37 500 BC, but was lazy) is a carbon date.
But Lake Toba is dated to 74 000 years ago. Why didn't I use 72 500 BC instead?
For the very simple reason, 74 000 BP is NOT a carbon date, the date was not obtained by carbon dating.
The exact date of the eruption** is unknown, but the pattern of ash deposits suggests that it occurred during the northern summer because only the summer monsoon could have deposited Toba ashfall in the South China Sea.[4] The eruption lasted perhaps 9 to 14 days.[5] The most recent two high-precision argon–argon datings dated the eruption to 73,880 ± 320[6] and 73,700 ± 300 years ago.[7]
Argon-argon is not carbon. If I believed both were giving roughly speaking real dates, I'd predict that it would be very difficult to obtain a carbon date, but that it would roughly agree with the argon-argon date. As I believe both dates are off in a matter not directly connected, I don't have any reason to presume they should give the same date, so I don't see how an argon argon date of 74 000 BP could tell us anything whatsoever about the carbon date.
But God has not allowed mankind to be threatened by several different such menaces, there was one, the Flood. That's why Toba and Campi Flegrei are both from the Flood.
If the Younger Dryas had really lasted 1000 years, it would also have been a huge threat. But here is a bit about these 1000 years.
The Younger Dryas*** (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1)[2] was a period in Earth's geologic history that occurred circa 12,900 to 11,700 years Before Present (BP).
Let's translate:
12 900 - 1950 = 10 950 BC (carbon dated)
11 700 - 1950 = 9750 BC (carbon dated)
Let's check my tables:
- 2647 BC
- 33.784 pmC, dated as 11,618 BC
- 2634 BC
- 37.009 pmC, dated as 10,851 BC
- 2621 BC
- 40.229 pmC, dated as 10,148 BC
- 2608 BC
- 43.443 pmC, 9500 BC
It was longer than 2634 to 2621 (13 years), but also shorter than 2647 to 2608 (39 years).
(2647 + 2634) / 2 = 2640.5
(33.784 + 37.009) / 2 = 35.3965
5730 * log(0.353965) / log(0.5) + 2640.5 = 11 226 BC
Too old carbon date, some tries later:
(2647 + 2634 + 2634 + 2634 + 2634 + 2634 + 2634) / 7 = 2635.857
(33.784 + 37.009 + 37.009 + 37.009 + 37.009 + 37.009 + 37.009) / 7 = 36.548
5730 * log(0.36548) / log(0.5) + 2635.857 = 10 957 BC
Pretty good. End of YD?
(2621 + 2608) / 2 = 2614.5
(40.229 + 43.443) / 2 = 41.836
5730 * log(0.41836) / log(0.5) + 2614.5 = 9818 BC
Too old again.
(2621 + 2608 + 2608) / 3 = 2612.333
(40.229 + 43.443 + 43.443) / 3 = 42.3717
5730 * log(0.423717) / log(0.5) + 2612.333 = 9711 BC
Too young. Let's combine the two?
(2621 + 2621 + 2608 + 2608 + 2608) / 5 = 2613.2
(40.229 + 40.229 + 43.443 + 43.443 + 43.443) / 5 = 42.1574
5730 * log(0.421574) / log(0.5) + 2613.2 = 9754 BC
Perfect.
- 2636 BC
- 36.548 pmC, so dated as 10,957 BC
- 2613 BC
- 42.1574 pmC, so dated as 9754 BC
So, the YD lasted 23 years. NOT an extinction threat to mankind. But Toba, Campi Flegrei and a few more like that would have been so, if the Flood hadn't cleared up things a bit after that.
My dates for pre-Babel years are on Newer Tables, Flood to Joseph in Egypt, these ones on the table I/II—II. And my formula for calculating the carbon year from real year and pmC is on Newer Tables, Preliminaries, pretty close to the bottom, basically 1/4 up.
Hans Georg Lundahl
Paris
St. John
27.XII.2025
Apud Ephesum natalis sancti Joannis, Apostoli et Evangelistae, qui, post Evangelii scriptionem, post exsilii relegationem et Apocalypsim divinam, usque ad Trajani Principis tempora perseverans, totius Asiae fundavit rexitque Ecclesias, ac tandem, confectus senio, sexagesimo octavo post passionem Domini anno mortuus est, et juxta eamdem urbem sepultus.
PS, admission and discovery. Looking at the wiki from Campanian Ignimbrite Eruption, the text gives the impression that both Ar/Ar and C-14 point to 39,000 BP. The footnote goes to Testing and Improving the IntCal20 Calibration Curve with Independent Records° where I find that 39,000 BP is actually the Ar/Ar date, while the raw carbon date, before getting calibrated with Ar/Ar, is ...
After removal of two outliers, possibly caused by incomplete removal of contaminations, 12 measurements on 7 samples yielded a weighted mean 14C age of 34,290 ± 90 (1 σ) 14C yr BP for the eruption.
That's the kind of thing I wish I had known before making the Newer Tables./HGL
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campanian_Ignimbrite_eruption
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Youngest_Toba_eruption
*** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
° https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/radiocarbon/article/testing-and-improving-the-intcal20-calibration-curve-with-independent-records/D72D9214C47FE9441B5E730D33DCCE3D
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