Probabilities in reference to question of finding fossils all three major levels (PMC) a place

I had a debate with Tony Reed (upcoming in sorted version) in which he had said "since the chances are basically nil to get a fossil preserved anyway, just forget about finding it in two or three major levels".

Let us get to Pascal's Triangle. First of all, very unrealistically, as it works out with an equal chance of finding or not finding a fossil at any given level.

	0 levels	1 level	2 levels	3 levels
1 level	1	1
2 levels	1	2	1
3 levels	1	3	3	1

Now, how about 1 chance in 4? 1 chance for, 3 chances against finding a fossil at any given level?

	0 levels	1 level	2 levels	3 levels
1 level	3	1
2 levels	9	6	1
3 levels	27	27	9	1

Notice a thing? In first, unrealistic, example, the 1:1 for each level came back as 3:3 for 1 vs 2 levels out of three. In second, equally unrealistic, or nearly so, example, the 3:1 for each level came back as 27:9 for 1 vs 2 levels out of three.

Now, what if there were one chance in 10 or in 100? That would mean 9:1 or 99:1 against a fossil being there in each level.

	0 levels	1 level	2 levels	3 levels
1 level	9	1
2 levels	81	18	1
3 levels	729	243	27	1

Before reaching third line, I needed to do some counting:

	0 = 81	1 = 18	2 = 1
not next * 9	729	162	9
next * 1	81	18	1
	0 levels	1 level	2 levels	3 levels
	729	162	9
		81	18	1
	729	243	27	1

And for 99:1 against a fossil?

	0 levels	1 level	2 levels	3 levels
1 level	99	1
2 levels	9801	198	1
3 levels	970299	29403	297	1

Before reaching third line, I needed to do some counting:

	0 = 9801	1 = 198	2 = 1
not next * 99	970299	19602	99
next * 1	9801	198	1
	0 levels	1 level	2 levels	3 levels
	970299	19602	99
		9801	198	1
	970299	29403	297	1

For 9:1 per level we get 243:27 = 9:1 for one vs two levels.

For 99:1 per level we get 29403:297 = 99:1 for one vs two levels.

The curious thing is, when we check my older post "How Fossils Superpose"*, and look at how many you have per pure Palaeozoic, pure Mesozoic, pure Cenozoic, and how many you have on two of these levels, we are seeing a ratio not too far from 99:1 - as far as modern, Geological and Palaeontological classifications are concerned.

If these were correct, one would expect also to find about 1 in 99 places a fossil at each level.

But the problem is - does it really look like a superposition of faunas where we find two of the three major levels? No. In Yacoraite we see rather same fauna below and above a K/T boundary. In Karoo we find the Permian/Palaeozoic and Triassic/Jurassic/Mesozoic faunas ... side by side. As if they were in reality different faunas from same Pre-Flood world.

Hans Georg Lundahl
Paris XV
XI Lord's Day after Pentecost
31.VII.2016

* Creation vs. Evolution : How do Fossils Superpose?
http://creavsevolu.blogspot.com/2013/11/how-do-fossils-superpose.html

Sorry for about a day, or near two, when the footnote was attached to the calendar numeric date, corrected Tuesday./HGL