A Little Review of James Reilly's Inerrancy papers spec, the one on radiocarbon

I am looking on the quotes from his paper 4, on radiocarbon.*

1) The Ubaidians, Halafians, etc. represent not the first humans who inhabited these regions, but the initial human habitation after the great flood in the days of Noah, and 2) the inhabitants of these regions should not be dated in the era 6500-3800 BC. The timelines provided in our previous paper cannot be seriously questioned. Rather, the Ubaid, Halaf, Hassuna and Samarra cultures must be dated in the time frame ca 2450-2350 BC and beyond.

I take it, 2450 is Reilly's Flood year. Mine is 2957 BC.

I also consider Ubaid, Halaf, Hasuna and Samarra as defintely after first century after the Flood.

The assumption is made, entirely without evidence, that the 14C/12C ratio measurable in the atmosphere today was not significantly different in the remote past, and can be used reliably as the basis for all radiocarbon measurements on ancient samples.

Correct, if "can be used reliably" is taken as can be used reliably on the basis of quasi identity of carbon ratio.

There is a more reliable use of radiocarbon, namely modelling, on Biblical evidence, the rise of radiocarbon.

For the sake of critics who might interject at this point and claim that the discipline of dendrochronology (tree ring dating) is able to validate the stated assumption, we merely point out that calibration charts are of unproven reliability prior to the beginning of the 2nd millennium, and as we will see momentarily, even this author accepts the scientific premise back that far (see our Figure 3 on page 15). What we object to most strenuously are denrochronological calibration charts which claim that “tree ring dating” can be extended four or five thousand years into the past, where they cannot possibly be authenticated. The interested reader might want to read up on the subject here and here and here, with particular attention paid to the process called “cross dating”, a self-authenticating process in which dendrologists use errant assumptions about the initial 14C/12C ratio in tree ring samples in order to date them and arrange them in chronological order, which order is then used to validate their radiocarbon dating assumptions. 13 This is about the most extreme example of “circular reasoning” that this author has ever encountered.

I would agree, entirely or not far from.

Now, both quote one and quote two involved an implied question of how fast the carbon ratio rose.

2450 - 2350 2% - 61 % in 100 years. We will first discuss the carbon ratio of 2 % or so at Flood, which I accept, then the rise to 61 % during first 100 years after Flood, which I reject.

For a carbon ratio of 2 % at about the time of the Flood, with some imprecision margin, agreed. By the way, this would mean that a dinosaur carbon dated as 22,000 BP cannot be from the Flood burials. How is that?

If you date a dino bone to 22,000 BP, or to 22,000 years old - obviously, as per a lab using conventional carbon dates assuming initial ratio c; equal to present one - this means there are 6.986 % modern carbon left.**

2450 BC + 1950 AD = 4400 years. Leaving, as per half life, 58.728 % of initial content.

Now, if initial content was 2 %, this would mean the remainder multiplies 58.728 by two and reduces by 100, or simply, divides by 50. 58.728 / 50 = 1.17456 %.

So, if sth was 4400 years old and had initial carbon ratio two percent of present one, we would not have 6.986 % modern carbon, but only 1.17456 % modern carbon. Would not carbon date it to 22,000 BP, but to 36,700 BP.

For a bone to have now 6.986 % modern carbon left, it must have had at the time it is from, if c. 4400 years ago, well, let's check:

6.986 % / 58.728 % = 11.9 %? Yes.

A rapid pre-Flood rise from 2 to 11.9 % of certain items but not most of them is not what I would expect. However, a rather rapid rise from 2 to 11.9 % would be a natural part of the post-Flood rise in carbon ratio.

Therefore, a dino dated to 22,000 BP cannot be from the Flood, but must be from later on, and I would say, some dinos who had multiplied after the Ark were soon killed off in Americas by post-Flood mudslides.

Now, 2 % to 61 % in 100 years ...

In 100 years, the remaining carbon ratio is 98.798 % of initial. Count 2 % * 98.798 % = 1.98 %.

This means that anything above 1.98 % found after 100 years would be by carbon 14 production during that time.

61 % - 1.98 % = 59.02 pmC added.

How much would normally, nowadays, be added in 100 years? Since we are now at a stable level, as much as decays, so, 100 % - 98.798 % = 1.202 %.

Instead of rising from 2 to 61 percent, the ratio would rise from 2 to c. 3 %.

59.02 / 1.202 = 49.101

So, carbon would have been added 49 times faster than now. This, of course, presuming that carbon 12 was constant after the Flood.

I have somewhat different scenarios for how fast carbon 14 ratio rose after Flood. My own fastest addition of carbon 14 is during Babel event, which I identify with Göbekli Tepe, so, 40 real years spreading out to 1000 years discrepancy between first and last carbon dates would be about 11 times as fast the carbon 14 forms now. Between Flood and Babel, it would be in medium 8 to 9 times faster. I don't do 49 times faster.

So, if there were 400 years between Flood and birth of Peleg and that is about when Babel starts, this being Göbekli Tepe, fairly obviously the enumerated Ubaid, Halaf, Hassuna and Samarra cannot be from just after the Flood, but must be from just before or around Babel.

Here is a checkup. I'll add Göbekli Tepe as Babel for reference:

		Unif.		Bibl.
GT /Bbl		9600 BC		2551 BC / 2824 BC
GT /Bbl		8600 BC		2511 BC / 2780 BC
Ubaid		6500 BC		c. 2567 BC
Ubaid		3800 BC		c. 2249 BC
Halaf		6100 BC		betw 2535 BC and 2494 BC
Halaf		5100 BC		after 2412 BC
Hassuna		7000 BC		betw 2617 BC and 2576 BC
Hassuna		6000 BC		2494 BC
Samarra		5500 BC		c. 2437 BC
Samarra		4800 BC		c. 2360 BC

At Göbekli Tepe, I showed that I am using two different Biblical timelines, the St Jerome and the Syncellus one, in the following I have used syncellus, not because it is necessarily better, but because I have this as latest update or so, and I should start to get going on translating this to St Jerome dates.

Let us check speed of carbon rise, from Flood in 2957 BC to Babel beginning in 2551 BC and then from Flood in 3358 BC to Babel beginning in 2854 BC.

Assume, as usual, Flood level is 2 % modern carbon. In 406 years, you have 95.207 % of original content, and at present the added carbon is 4.793 pmC. 2 % should sink to 1.90414 %. Extra years at Babel beginning are 7049, so carbon level was 42.626 pmC. Added carbon was that minus what was left, so 40.72186. But 40.72 / 4.79 = 8.5 times faster. Not 49, but 8.5.

In 535 years you have 93.733 % of original content, and now we are adding in that time 6.267 pmC. Extra years at Babel beginning are 6776, so actual reached carbon level is 44.057 pmC. 44.057 - 1.87466 = 42.18234 pmC in added carbon, which is faster than 6.267 pmC by a factor of 6.73. Not 49, but 6.73.

There are limits on how fast carbon can be added without the radioactivity needed for it frying life. The actual limit is unknown to me.

It could be known to Ilya Usoskin, but he refuses to tell. He is a "scientist" and to him Creationists like I and James Reilly are engaging in "belief" and therefore we are not worthy of getting any scientific answers.

Here is a link to his and my correspondence, starting a few letters before I get to know about him:

Correspondence of Hans Georg Lundahl : Other Check on Carbon Buildup
http://correspondentia-ioannis-georgii.blogspot.fr/2017/11/other-check-on-carbon-buildup.html

So, as yet, I do not have full and incontrovertible proof that James Reilly is wrong. But I think he is.

He is also wrong on solution to Distant Starlight problem. The good solution is simply saying, distances based either directly (as in 4 lightyears for α Centauri) or indirectly (as in 13.8 billion lightyears for "furthest visible objects") on Heliocentrism are as moot as a carbon date from 9600 BC. No need to fidget about what the Bible says here. As to verb used, God could have created celestial objects partly from "water above the firmament" (or in upper part of it), if namely that means Hydrogen.

But his work on Sumerian Kinglist actually taught me something.

Hans Georg Lundahl
Torcy
St Peter's Chair at Antioch
22.II.2018

PS. Two more links:

James Reilly : INERRANCY PAPERS
http://www.inerrantbible.com/inerrancy-papers.html

Own : Interim III, Flood to Abraham with Syncellus
http://creavsevolu.blogspot.fr/2017/05/interim-iii-flood-to-abraham-with.html

* Paper #4 Argument that there exists no record of human existence prior to ca 4000 BC: Part 3. In this paper we will provide arguments from science that plant and animal life was created around 4000 BC. The paper will deal exclusively with the radiometric dating method called radiocarbon dating, the only methodology capable of dating organic matter.
http://www.inerrantbible.com/uploads/6/2/6/5/6265423/radiocarbon_dating_analysis.pdf

** Carbon 14 Dating Calculator
by Dennis DeTurck, University of Pennsylvania
https://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/c14/carbdate.html