Getting the Margin Error Right!

Genetic analyses of a male buried at Lebyazhinka, radiocarbon dated to 5640-5555 BCE, found that he belonged to a population often referred to as "Samara hunter-gatherers", a group closely associated with Eastern Hunter-Gatherers. The male sample carried Y-haplogroup R1b1a1a and mitochondrial haplogroup U5a1d.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samara_culture

Seriously a margin of error of 85 years?

2281 BC

65.83 pmC, dated as 5737 BC

2258 BC

66.981 pmC, dated as 5571 BC

2235 BC

68.129 pmC, dated as 5407 BC

My table is too grossly made to fully reduce it, spanning leaps of 23 years, but we can interpolate.

2281 BC

65.83 pmC, dated as 5737 BC

2258 BC

66.981 pmC, dated as 5571 BC

(2281 + 2258) / 2 = 2269.5
(65.83 + 66.981) / 2 = 66.4055

5730 * log(0.664055) / log(0.5) + 2269.5 = 5658

(2281 + 2258 + 2258) / 3 = 2265.6666666666666667
(65.83 + 66.981 + 66.981) / 3 = 66.597333

5730 * log(0.66597333) / log(0.5) + 2265.6666666666666667 = 5626

(2281 + 2281 + 2258 + 2258 + 2258) / 5 = 2267.2
(65.83 + 65.83 + 66.981 + 66.981 + 66.981) / 5 = 66.5206

5730 * log(0.665206) / log(0.5) + 2267.2 = 5637

2267 BC

66.5206 pmC, dated as 5637 BC

2258 BC

66.981 pmC, dated as 5571 BC

2235 BC

68.129 pmC, dated as 5407 BC

(2258 + 2235) / 2 = 2246.5
(66.981 + 68.129) / 2 = 67.555

5730 * log(0.67555) / log(0.5) + 2246.5 = 5489

(2258 + 2258 + 2235) / 3 = 2250.3333333333333333
(66.981 + 66.981 + 68.129) / 3 = 67.364

5730 * log(0.67364) / log(0.5) + 2250.3333333333333333 = 5516

(2258 + 2258 + 2258 + 2258 + 2235) / 5 = 2253.4
(66.981 + 66.981 + 66.981 + 66.981 + 68.129) / 5 = 67.2106

5730 * log(0.672106) / log(0.5) + 2253.4 = 5538

(2258 + 2258 + 2258 + 2258 + 2258 + 2258 + 2235) / 7 = 2254.7142857142857143
(66.981 + 66.981 + 66.981 + 66.981 + 66.981 + 66.981 + 68.129) / 7 = 67.145

5730 * log(0.67145) / log(0.5) + 2254.7142857142857143 = 5547

(2258 + 2258 + 2258 + 2258 + 2258 + 2258 + 2258 + 2258 + 2235) / 9 = 2255.4444444444444444
(66.981 + 66.981 + 66.981 + 66.981 + 66.981 + 66.981 + 66.981 + 66.981 + 68.129) / 9 = 67.108555

5730 * log(0.67108555) / log(0.5) + 2255.4444444444444444 = 5553

2255 BC

67.108555 pmC, so dated as 5553 BC

2267 - 2255 = 12 years margin error. Somewhat more believeable, right?/HGL